Let's Review the "2008 predictions" from this blog

LINK December 22 2007

5 predictions for 2008:
-->2008 will be the year the Chinese stock market bubble bursts.

1 year Chinese Stockmarket chart

5 year Chinese Stockmarket chart

check

-->2008 will be the year that USA's biggest mortgage company Countrywide Financial will go bankrupt.

1 year Countrywide financial Stockmarket chart

You can argue that "Countrywide Financial" was taken over by Bank of America ... however Countrywide was insolvent at that time and Bank of America took them over because they lend them money that money would otherwise be lost. I consider it a check.

-->2008 will be the year that the European housing market will start a deep fall/crash.

There is no chart of the "European housing market" as a whole, but it is pretty clear that home prices are declining in most parts of Europe and are imploding in some "bubble" countries(Spain, Greece, UK, Scandinavia, ...) In Spain prices are down 40% YoY and in the UK prices are declining 1% per week. I think that is a check.

-->2008 will be the year Agfa-Gevaert (BEL 20) turns around.

1 year Agfa-Gevaert chart
No check.

-->2008 will be the year that currencies reflect the strentgh of their economies... Chinese Yuan (CNY) and Japanese Yen (JPY) will rise +20%.

1 year USD - JPY chart

Japanese Yen up 22%.

check.

1 year USD - CNY chart

Yuan up 8%.

No check.(but close)

3.5/5

I am working on new predictions for 2009.

WaaaW

No kidding

5 day usd to euro chart (declining chart, means declining dollar)

Madoff biggest Ponzi scheme ever?

When you read the media it appears that they think the 50 billion Madoff fraudscheme was the biggest Ponzi scheme ever. I always thought that the US Social Security System was pulling of the biggest Ponzi scheme with 44 trillion dollars (trillion with a T) of "future obligations"...


Peter Schiff
The Social Security Administration runs its “trust funds” with precisely the same methods used by Madoff and Ponzi. As money is collected by from current workers, the funds are then dispersed to those already receiving benefits. None of the funds collected are actually invested, so no investment returns are ever generated. Those currently paying into the system are expected to receive their returns based on the “contribution” made by future workers. This is the classic definition of a Ponzi scheme. The only difference is that Ponzi didn’t own a printing press.


The United States Government runs its own balance sheet based on the Ponzi principal as well. Our national debt always grows and never shrinks. As existing debt matures, proceeds are repaid by issuing new debt. Interest payments on existing debt are also made by selling new debt to investors. The whole scheme depends on an ever growing supply of new lenders, or the willingness of existing lenders, to continue to roll over maturing notes. Of course, as was the case with Madoff, if enough of our creditors want their money back, the music stops playing.


In Madoff’s case, the rug pulling was provided by the huge financial losses suffered by some of his clients in other non-Madoff investments. When enough of these clients looked to sell some of their apparently well-performing Madoff assets to help offset such losses, the scam collapsed. The same thing could befall the United States Government. Now that China and our other creditors are looking to spend some of their U.S. Treasury holdings to stimulate their own economies, look for a similar outcome with even more dire implications.

Weekend car search

Last weekend we went to visit some cardealers. We tested 3 cars: Toyota Highlander (2nd time), Toyota Sienna and the Honda Odyssey.

They all have a 3.5 V6 powerful engine which has about 250 horsepower. The problem is the engines are not very fuel efficient: 20mpg (+/-12l/100km).

A van like the Honda Odyssey and the Toyota Sienna can be compared to a Renault Espace and the Highlander is an SUV (sports utility vehicle).

Toyota highlander interior

Honda Odyssey

Toyota Sienna

1 euro almost equals 1 British Pound

chart 18 month euro/pound

We are very close to parity ( 1 euro = 1 pound) now, the UK economy is imploding, homeprices will crash even more than here in the US. Overpriced London will once be affordable for us, mortals not coming from Iceland...

Photoshop

For their photoshop class students needed a victim, the guy in the pic is me...

The people at the FED just lost their minds, we'll all be DOLLARmillionaires soon

Just like these happy people (the US in 5 years?)

What do you need to become a realtor?

1. 90 hours of real estate school ($370, in person, sorry no inet)
2. 4 exams at the school (pass with 80%, state + US)
3. Fingerprints ($10)
4. Contract writing class ($40, 7 hours)
5. 2 exams for the license ($119, pass with 75%, State + US)
6. Letter from broker (who is going to employ you, but as a realtor you are a contractor of the broker, NOT the employee)
7. NAR ethics class

How do bankrupt countries get rid of their debt?

Just default on it because you determine the debt to be "immoral".
Calling Foreign Debt 'Immoral,' Leader Allows Ecuador to Default
It is exceedingly rare in global finance for a nation not to honor its debt because it doesn't want to, as opposed to not being able to make payments because of a financial crunch. Some analysts fear it may set a precedent, emboldening other leaders who share Correa's ideology -- such as Venezuela's Hugo Chávez -- to make similar pronouncements.

Bailout Nation + Bailout Frenzy = Bankrupt Nation

Finding a senator who speaks the truth is as difficult as finding someone with a triple digit IQ in the Bush family, but I finally found one:

“We’re going to have riots. There are already people rioting because they’re losing their jobs when everybody else is being bailed out. The fairness of it becomes more and more evident as we go along."
"The auto companies may be hurting, but there are very few companies that aren’t hurting and they’re going to hurt. We don’t have enough money to bail everyone out."
“If you look at where we’re going, we’re not on a sustainable course as a country”

- Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., December 11, 2008

People that still have their job might find it hard to believe but 2009 might well be the year of the "food riots" all around the world!

Hurricane Bush

"An Obama job approval rating of 79 percent -- that's the sort of rating you see when the public rallies around a leader after a national disaster. To many Americans, the Bush administration WAS a national disaster."

Bill Schneider, CNN's senior political analyst, December 2008

Bush is history

I am taking real estate classes to become a realtor

This is not an early April fool's joke. I just finished 6 (out of 18)real estate classes. My goal is to become a realtor within 2 months, I started December 3rd. Why oh Why?
1. If you can't beat them join them
2. Better to have 2 jobs in a depression than just 1
3. Tax purposes (car, office in home, cell, comp, inet, travel trips, ...)
4. I have a lot of spare time (I work 187 days and am finished at 2 pm)
5. We are going to buy a house some day, that's at least 1 commission
6. Low prices offer investment possibilities, as a realtor you have access to all properties, first come, first served
7. I think there will be a glut of homes on the market the next few years
8. I am good with numbers

Auto unions don't want to cut wages to be competitive, well

everyone loses their job.
Happy now?

$14 billion auto bailout dies in Senate after talks collapse over union wage cuts

Who would have thought that carmanufacturers in the US with a $70 an hour unionized labor force were not able to produce cars profitably?

Wonder if they can find people to finance their real estate project

amazing, expensive idea

Naomi is doing cheerleading at her school

Talk about adapting to our local environment...Maybe we can expect something like this in a few years. She has to go to "cheer" once every week on Monday.

Gift Idea

The "Wall Street coffin"

For $35, you can order a wood coffin filled with actual shredded money and a plaque of your choice, including "R.I.P. Lehman Bros., 1885-2008", and "R.I.P. Bear Stearns, 1923-2008." For an extra $5, you can customize the plaque. Maybe "R.I.P. Jane's 401k", or "R.I.P. Jane's GE Stock Options with a $28 Strike Price."

Happy Holidays!

Thank you realtors
Thank you mortgage brokers
Thank you bankers
Thank you Greenspan
Thank you Bernanke
Thank you Paulson

and the biggest thank you of all
THANK YOU Mr President

I hope you are all happy now
LINK

Car Quest

As our ODO-meter of our car is approaching 300 000 km, it is time to prepare for a replacement if necessary. We went to do some information gathering. We visited the Tempe Auto-plex, where all car manufacturers are located. Think big! Lots with over 200/300 cars!
We are looking for a 3/4 year old SUV / VAN with about 50 000 miles.
SUV list (random order):
BMW x5
Acura Mdx
Toyota Highlander (+hybrid)
Volvo Xc 90

VAN list (random order):
Toyota Sienna
Nissan Quest
Honda Odyssey

Pictures from the internet.
We drove this 300 horsepower Acura Mdx. Acura is the luxury brand of honda in the US. It has a 3rd row and we enjoyed the smooth ride. The 5-speed automatic transmission was extremely joyful, the interior was very refined. The car drives like a German one and it is one of the best in the luxury class of SUV's. WaaaaaaaaaaaaW what a car!

We drove this 266 horsepower Toyota Higlander. Toyota is an excellent, reliable brand but the transmission of this Highlander was below par. It looked like the car was underpowered. Very quiet, spacious car with a versatile interior. The Acura was MUCH better than this Toyota.

We weren't able to drive this Nissan Quest, but we were impressed with the interior and the "low" price of some 2nd hand models. We will be driving the vans next weekend".

Meanwhile the "competent" car companies are going to launch their electric plug-in vehicles in 2009

The 2009 Toyota Prius Plug-in, just plug the outlet in a normal electrical outlet, charge for 6 hours and go:

The future is here NOW!

Sinterklaas

It was a long trip from Spain to Phoenix, but he made it. He took the Panama canal and walked very quietly on our roof. Thanks old man, see ya next year!

Another day, another record

A record one in 10 American homeowners with a mortgage were either at least a month behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of September as the source of housing market pressure shifted from risky loans to the crumbling U.S. economy.I assume the 533000 people who lost their jobs in November will lose their home in the next 6 months.

There are now 4.4 million homes for sale.

How to stop the housingprice crash?

I assume the government is considering these "solutions":

a) Open the borders to get an influx of 4.4 million immigrant families to boost the economy

b) Artifically lower mortgage interest rates to 4.5%

c) Inflate the problem away by flooding the system with (printed) money

d) Change current mortgage contracts by issuing perpetual loans at a "low" interest rate

34 billion is peanuts

Why is there such a fuzz over a 34 billion gift to the car industry if the government just threw 8600 trillion dollars in the bank moneyhole?

I didn't see any hearings for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Citigroup, JpMorgan, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Bear Stearn, ...

After decades of bad decision making, the top of GM...

finally saw the light and figured out a way to make cars profitably...

GM stock 10 year chart

While GM is begging the government to throw more money in their bottomless pitt, which will be used to pay for an incompetent board and overpaid union workers, the car manufacturers that don't get any bailout money have to cut costs:

Honda drops out of Formula One racing to cut costs

If the US government doesn't stop interfering in the market place we won't have a recession, but a full fledged DEPRESSION, which would make the "Great Depression" look like a walk in the park.

I was able to find a picture of the senators at the GM, Ford, Chrysler hearings:

Arizona Leads The Nation With The Biggest State Deficit

Lots of states are facing severe budget problems. But only Arizona can say that its problems are the very worst.
The National Conference of State Legislatures released a survey today indicating that Arizona faces a budget deficit representing 24.2 percent of its general fund, easily outpacing No. 2 New York, which faces mere 20 percent reductions.
Rounding out the field of aneurysm-inducing budgets are California (18 percent), Wisconsin (17.2 percent), Minnesota (14.7 percent) and Kansas (14.5 percent).
"While the data we collected from state legislative fiscal officers are pretty sobering, our discussions with legislative leaders tell us that they expect the problem to only get worse," said William T. Pound, NCSL’s executive director, in a total Debbie Downer of a press release.
LINK

If you ever think on visiting us here in the Phoenix region, it is good to know that

Health Magazine named Phoenix's Sky Harbor International Airport, America's healthiest airport.
A panel of expert judges gave the airport "…rave reviews for its commitment to a comfortable, low-stress experience for flyers," according to Health Magazine.
The airport received extremely high marks for its healthy dining options and the magazine states that, "the airports bathrooms are widely known as some of the nation's cleanest."
LINK

Soon coming to a country near you

The fortis shareholder meeting, it's in Dutch but I guess everybody knows what they are saying...


LINK to Stock Quote
I read somewhere that 1 in 5 Belgians had shares of Fortis ... the other 80% is indirectly (pension funds) shareholder.

Thanksgiving pics 2 / 2

This is the most funny thing I have ever read

From the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe:
As Monetary Authorities, we have been humbled and have taken heart in the realization that some leading Central Banks, including those in the USA and the UK, are now not just talking of, but also actually implementing flexible and pragmatic central bank support programmes where these are deemed necessary in their National interests.
That is precisely the path that we began over 4 years ago in pursuit of our own national interest and we have not wavered on that critical path despite the untold misunderstanding, vilification and demonization we have endured from across the political divide.

You can't make those things up: LINK

Thanksgiving pics 1 / 2