Thursday, December 18, 2008

Let's Review the "2008 predictions" from this blog

LINK December 22 2007


5 predictions for 2008:
-->2008 will be the year the Chinese stock market bubble bursts.

1 year Chinese Stockmarket chart


5 year Chinese Stockmarket chart

check

-->2008 will be the year that USA's biggest mortgage company Countrywide Financial will go bankrupt.

1 year Countrywide financial Stockmarket chart
You can argue that "Countrywide Financial" was taken over by Bank of America ... however Countrywide was insolvent at that time and Bank of America took them over because they lend them money that money would otherwise be lost. I consider it a check.


-->2008 will be the year that the European housing market will start a deep fall/crash.

There is no chart of the "European housing market" as a whole, but it is pretty clear that home prices are declining in most parts of Europe and are imploding in some "bubble" countries(Spain, Greece, UK, Scandinavia, ...) In Spain prices are down 40% YoY and in the UK prices are declining 1% per week. I think that is a check.

-->2008 will be the year Agfa-Gevaert (BEL 20) turns around.

1 year Agfa-Gevaert chart
No check.

-->2008 will be the year that currencies reflect the strentgh of their economies... Chinese Yuan (CNY) and Japanese Yen (JPY) will rise +20%.

1 year USD - JPY chart

Japanese Yen up 22%.

check.

1 year USD - CNY chart

Yuan up 8%.

No check.(but close)

3.5/5

I am working on new predictions for 2009.

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