1.28 against the euro!
Maybe it is good time for us to visit Europe :-)
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
The dollar is now going PARABOLIC
Another Stimulus Check?
Democrats are pushing for a 2nd stimulus packet to revive the economy.
They are just INSANE, the USA is broke, for God's sake, where would they get the money.
I would start by raising interest rates, raising taxes, making people save, let banks go bankrupt, save people's savings from those banks and abolish the FED.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Misc Pics 1 / 4
2 weeks ago we went on a trip to Sedona.
This home was driving on the road...
Cheetah!
Lovely views.
We stayed in a bungalow, free of charge. We had to follow a 2 hour "time-share" program. Cheapo!
Next to our bungalow we had a little river.
Definitely better looking than the painted European cows.
Montezuma's castle, one of the local state parks.
Monday, October 20, 2008
No Worries
after 8 years of Bush' "homeowner society" and "small government" there is no wealth left to spread ...
Sunday, October 19, 2008
The Great(er) Depression with a twist (3/3)
That we are in a deflationary cycle is now clear. Gas is now 2.99 a gallon, agricultural commodities have crashed 60% during the last 3 months, stocks, bonds, all down big time.
The dollar is now the strongest currency in the world because of its reserve currency status as a safe haven... the irony.
This is a MUST see. (there are 8 parts, they are all incredible, see youtube if you want to watch them all, Marc Faber has a PhD in Economics from a European University magna cum laude)
What will happen next???
No one knows.
We have never been in a situation where ALL countries have bubbles in ALL asset classes.
One thing is certain. The "American Dream" for most Americans will end in a nightmare. The "way of life" of how most Americans "spend" their future income, will cease to exist. No more 3 cars per family, no more Hummers and S500's, no more 2nd homes in Sedona and Newport Beach, no more eating out 5 days a week, no more pools for the backyard, no more Mcmansions for people earning 70k a year, no more borrowing 100% to buy a car, ...
Those days are over and will never come back.
So how will the FED handle this mess?
Remember, in a deflation, the government suffers from the same problem of fixed debt and failling income (in the form of tax revenues) as the public does. Just as it does with the masses, this leads to insolvency.
In his speech "Deflation making sure it doesn't happen here", Ben Bernanke talks about dropping money from helicopters. That's why he is called "helicopter Ben" by the blogging community.
In the speech, he reveals just how far the FED is prepared to go to prevent deflation. His solution is to keep throwing more and more currency, not money, at the problem. He even talks about lowering interest rates to 0 percent.
This would cause massive inflation in a few years.
So what is the "twist" for this depression?
In the 1930's the FED was not able to print currency, because the dollar was pegged at gold. But NOW, since the dollar is not linked to gold anymore, dollars can be printed as the FED sees fit.
To sum it up, me thinks, we are in the deflation stage but the FED will throw money from "helicopters" which will cause hyperinflation (inflation +20% a year)in the next few years.
Just my 2 cents.
Who made Buffett write an article in the The New York Times that he is buying US stocks?
He is known as the Oracle of Omaha.
He is known as the best investor of our time.
He has a buy and hold approach.
He buys stocks on the cheap.
He moves markets and stocks with his comments.
He bought for 5 billion dollars of "perpetual preferred stock" in GOLDMAN SACHS (Secretary of Treasury, Paulson's former company...) that yields a 10% dividend.
He bought for 3 billion dollars of "perpetual preferred stock" in General Electric that yields a 10% dividend. General Electric can pay him that money back (+3 years worth of dividends)+ a 10% fine after 3 years.
So he is not really buying the pure stock, he is buying something similar to a bond with a call option.
IF he was buying stocks WHY would he let everyone know?
Friday, October 17, 2008
Our Taxdollars at work part 2
LINK
Financial workers at Wall Street's top banks are to receive pay deals worth more than $70bn (£40.4bn), a substantial proportion of which is expected to be paid in bonuses, for their work so far this year - despite plunging the global financial system into its worst crisis since the 1929 stock market crash, the Guardian has learned.
Staff at six banks including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup will pick up the payouts despite being the beneficiaries of a $700bn bail-out from the US government that has already prompted widespread criticism. The government cash has been poured in on the condition that excessive executive pay will be curbed.
Pay plans for bankers have been disclosed in recent corporate statements. Pressure on the US firms to review preparations for annual bonuses increased today when Germany's Deutsche Bank said many of its leading traders would join chief executive Josef Ackermann in waiving millions of euro in annual payouts.
The sums that continue to be spent by Wall Street firms on payroll, payoffs and - most controversially - bonuses appear to bear no relation to the heavy losses incurred by investors in the banks. Shares in Citigroup and Goldman Sachs have declined by more than 45% since the start of the year; Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley have fallen by more than 60%. JP MorganChase fell 6.4% and Lehman Brothers has collapsed.
At one point last week Morgan Stanley's $10.7bn pay pot for the year to date was greater than the entire stock market value of the business. In effect, staff, on receiving their remuneration, could club together and buy the bank.
In the first nine months of the year Citigroup, which employs thousands of staff in the UK, accrued $25.9bn for salaries and bonuses, an increase on the previous year of 4%. Earlier this week the bank accepted a $25bn investment by the US government as part of its bail-out plan.
At Goldman Sachs the figure was $11.4bn, Morgan Stanley $10.73bn, JP MorganChase $6.53bn and Merrill Lynch $11.7bn. At Merrill, which was on the point of going bust last month before being taken over by Bank of America, the amount accrued in the last quarter grew 76% to $3.49bn. At Morgan Stanley, the amount put aside for staff compensation also grew in the last quarter to the end of September by 3% to $3.7bn.
Days before it collapsed into bankruptcy protection a month ago Lehman Brothers revealed $6.12bn of staff pay plans in its corporate filings. These payouts, the bank insisted, were justified despite net revenue collapsing from $14.9bn to a net outgoing of $64m. None of the banks the Guardian contacted wished to comment on the record about their pay plans.
Soon coming to a country near YOU
REYKJAVIK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Iceland has food stocks for about 3 to 5 weeks, but needs quickly to restore a proper foreign exchange market so importers can get back to normal business and avoid shortages, importers said on Wednesday.
Since crisis broke out on the north Atlantic island of 300,000 people, involving the government taking over the top three banks, suppliers to Iceland have cut credit to importers. Some have also demanded pre-payment for goods.
Though the central bank has said it has foreign reserves for eight to nine months of food, importers said a cash injection from abroad was the only solution to avoid shortages.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The bailout has its positive effects...
Our tax dollars at work? LINK
An auction that netted $7.5 million in bids on 56 distressed Utah properties fell through last week after the owners — three banks and two private lenders — decided they may get a better deal by holding out for the government’s bailout plan.
"There were buyers, but we couldn’t sell the homes because free enterprise has gone out of the market," said Eric Nelson, founder of Las Vegas-based Eric Nelson Auctioneering.
"This has never happened before. In the 25 years we’ve conducted lender-owned auctions, we’ve consistently closed over 95 percent of all high bids," Nelson said.
"The stock market’s historic drop last week and the bailout plan are some of the main reasons why the lenders rejected the bids," he said. "They’re thinking, ‘Why sell the properties for 50 cents on the dollar when they may get 75 cents or 80 cents through the bailout?’ "
Incredible purchasing power of the USD $$$
I am still amazed by the incredible purchasing power of the USD HERE in the United States.
There was a Hasbro promotion at amazon.com so I did some "toy" shopping for the next few months.
2 of: Hungry Hungry Hippos
1 of: Stratego
1 of: The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down (Little Books. Big Profits)
1 of: Mr. Potato Head
2 of: Hasbro Transformers Risk Game
1 of: Fisher-Price Learning Phone - Spanish Version
2 of: Monopoly Disney Pixar Edition
1 of: Monopoly Clone Wars
1 of: Star Wars Clone Wars Force Action Lightsaber Vader
1 of: Star Wars Clone Wars Force Action Lightsaber Anakin
1 of: The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away.
Incredible but the total price for ALL these items combined, incl shipping, incl tax: $107
Item(s) Subtotal:
$174.62
Shipping & Handling:
$41.19
Super Saver Discount
-$41.19
$10 off
-$10.00
Free Gift
-$14.99
Free Game
-$19.99
Promotion Applied
-$21.97
-----
Total Before Tax:
$107.67
Estimated Tax:
$0.00
-----
Grand Total:
$107.67
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
I don't get it
First they wanted 700 billion to buy bad debt from the banks ... but now they are using half of the money to buy BANK STOCKS? wtf
THAT will help the US homeowner to avoid foreclosure...
This government is owned by corporate America.
No one in the rest of the world should blame the American homebuyer
In my opinion (no sarcasm this time) they were only responsible for bringing down the US banks and the US economy.
No one held a gun next to the head of the CEO of Fortis or Dexia to buy those "safe" American mortgage "backed"(lol) securities.
Europeans can only blame their own bankers for this mess. Shouldn't bankers know how to do proper riskmanagement?
They look like incompetent suck-ups to me.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Divorce can ruin your life, and your house...
PHNOM PENH, Cambodia - A couple in rural Cambodia has terminated their 18-year marriage with a divorce settlement that entailed sawing in two the wooden house they once shared, villagers said Friday. The husband, 42-year-old Moeun Sarim, has taken away with him all the bits and pieces of his half a house, said his 35-year-old wife, Vat Navy.
The governments are going to take over the banks in Europe
Well, this is not going to end well.
European bank assets as percentage of GDP. (=BBP)
+ 600 trillion in derivatives...
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